Demographic Challenges for Europe
Dr. Reiner Klingholz
Berlin Institute for Population and Development
European societies are experiencing fundamental changes through demographic developments. In most European countries the birth rates are below replacement level, people live much longer than ever before and as a consequence, the relation between the number of people in retirement age and the younger, economically active generation, is changing – in some countries dramatically.
Germany is at the front of these developments, for two reasons. First because birth rates have fallen deeply and very early: Since the mid 1970ies Germany has birth rates where a child generation replaces the parent generation by only two thirds. For thirty years Germans raised few children. Now they have few parents that raise few children. With other words: Germany faces an exponential shrinking process.
Whereas the age groups between 30 and 50 years that normally contribute most to the economic prosperity of industrialized nations will shrink up to 38 percent between 2005 and 2050, the groups 80 years and older will grow up to 300 percent. By the year 2050 12 percent of all people living in Germany will be older that 80, according to the recent forecast of the Federal Bureau of Statistics.
The second reason Germany why is a frontrunner in demographic changes is the fact that one part of the country – the former GDR – is a laboratory where all changes industrialized countries will face now or later can be observed with high speed and extreme consequences.
After reunification Germany’s East has for some years seen the lowest fertility rate (0.77 children per woman) ever observed in a single country. In addition the East registered a considerable loss of young and talented inhabitants (more that 10 percent of the former GDR population), mainly young women. Today Germany’s East is the region with the biggest surplus of young men in Europe. These males without partners are often jobless and without education – a mixture barely inviting for females to return.
The reason why young women leave the East more frequently than their male counterparts, is not that there are no jobs for women. In fact the labour market in the former GDR has evolved from a production dominated market into a more service oriented one which provides even better job opportunities for women. The main reason for the selective migration of young women can be found in disturbing qualification differences between young males and females: Eastern females finish school with the highest qualification (Abitur) 50 percent more often than males, whereas males leave school without any qualification at all twice as often as females. As it is much easier to leave the economic crisis zones in East Germany with a good graduation, more women than men leave the East. As women in Germany tend to seek partners at least with the same education level, it is impossible for all young women to find an adequate partner. This factor seems to contribute most to disproportional migration.
In a way East Germany shows what can happen to many European regions in the course of the coming changes - mainly in Eastern Europe, but also in the high North and in the peripheral South. Europe, not only by countries but by regions is divided demographically: Into a medium fertility zone, where rising life expectancy and immigration will add up to further population growth and a low fertility zone, where the number of children per woman is 1.5 or lower. If the fertility level remains low for an extended time, these regions might be caught in a “fertility trap” because having few children might eventually turn into a social norm.
In total, Europe-27 will have lost probably 10 percent of its population by 2050. Europeans will concentrate more and more in regions with high economic potential, whereas other regions will end up more or less depopulated. In the same time, the 27 “hinterland” countries surrounding Europe, from Afghanistan to Morocco, including Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Somalia, will have doubled their populations. It is obvious that these developments will cause substantial migration – due to the pressure from outside and the demand for young talented people as a workforce from inside Europe.
Even bigger divergences can be observed on a global scale. Not only Europe-27 is shrinking but also Russia, Ukraine, Japan or South Korea. On the other hand some countries, unfortunately those with very little economic potential, will double their population by 2050 (mostly in Africa), others like Niger, Chad or Yemen will triple, Uganda could even quadruple by 2050. India will add more than half a billion – the equivalent of Europe’s population. How the face of the world will change in a very short time period can be realized by the fact that populationwise, Yemen will be bigger than France in 2050.
In total the world has anything but a shrinking problem. Today the world population is growing by 200.000 heads per day. Six weeks and we have added the equivalent of one Switzerland.
All this does not mean that Europeans are on the road to extinction. But it shows the enormous challenges ahead, the need for fundamental reforms in the social systems, in the education systems, in migration policy, in family policy, in development policy - and in European mentality.
