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Thursday, 29 April 2010 |
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11.30 am |
Aperitifs |
12.00 pm |
Luncheon
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1.30 pm |
Opening of Conference |
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Welcome
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Keynote Address |
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Keynote Address |
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Introduction
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Coffee break |
3.15 pm |
Panel 1 |
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The Financial Crisis and Globalisation – What Linkages? For antiglobalisation warriors, the financial and economic crises confirmed the problems of unfettered markets. They made it possible for American toxic assets to be gobbled up by banks in many countries, and then helped to spread the malaise far and wide. The collapse of the US housing bubble brings Iceland and Ireland to their knees. Debt repayment difficulties in Dubai make the US and European stock exchanges stumble. Bank subsidiaries in one country bring their foreign parents to the brink of insolvency. Write-off losses, according to the IMF, have wiped out about half of the equity capital of the European banking system. What does the crisis really say about globalisation? Did the globalisation of the supply chain exacerbate the crisis’s effects or its scope? Given that trade barriers are usually easier to erect than to dismantle, what is the outlook for globalisation in the coming years? Will finance become a more local affair? |
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Chairman
Introduction
Speakers
Discussion |
5.30 pm |
End of Session |
7.30 pm |
Dinner at the Munich Residence by Invitation of the Minister-President of the Free State of Bavaria represented by Martin Zeil |
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Friday, 30 April 2010 |
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9.00 am |
Panel 2 |
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Managing the Crisis The speedy initial reaction after the Lehman Brothers debacle and the huge rescue packages enacted by governments around the world do appear to have averted a catastrophic meltdown. However, while an upswing seems to be underway in the US and elsewhere, the US is still reeling from the obliteration of its mortgage securitization market: private issues of mortgage-backed securities and the CDOs built on them collapsed to a single-digit percentage by 2009. Public debt will reach alarming proportions in many countries: in the US, it will exceed 100% of GDP in 2011, while in the G-20 countries, according to the IMF, it will reach 115% of GDP on average by 2014. Furthermore, credit default swaps guaranteeing tens of trillions of dollars are still outstanding. Are there any strategies to defuse the ticking bombs? Is it too early to wind down governments’ stimulus packages? How can the US secure its recovery? Will China profit from this crisis enough to overtake the US even more quickly? |
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Keynote Address |
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Chairman
Introduction
Speakers
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Coffee break |
11.15 am |
Panel 3 |
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Banking Regulation When a game offers you potential profits without a ceiling but potential losses limited to a manageable, known quantity, you will be tempted to gamble. What could possibly go wrong? Shareholders, bank managers and homeowners alike were offered such a game, with profits fuelled by a spiralling web of securitisations and losses restricted by limited liability. The result was seemingly limitless wealth creation that induced peoples and countries to live beyond their means, big bonuses to be given to bank managers, and huge dividends to be paid out to shareholders. The downside? A crater in public finances that may take a couple of generations to patch up. What regulatory approaches are now called for? Which transition strategy leads best to sound banking? What should be permitted, what should be prohibited? How crucial is it to harmonise regulation across countries? |
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Keynote Address |
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Introduction
Chairman
Speakers
Discussion |
1.15 pm |
Buffet Lunch |